Research - Is This Our Salvation?
It seems that over the years citrus growers have relied on two items to solve the critical issues they always seem to face – prices and production. Marketing has always been a challenge and most of the time weather solved this problem; primarily in occurrence of a freeze. Recently a few hurricanes took care of low prices!
What about production problems? In 1888 it was cottony cushion scale and the list over the following years includes purple/red scale, spreading decline, tristeza, blight, diaprepes, canker and now greening. It seems help was always needed to keep trees alive and production up. The solution for production problems – RESEARCH! Over the years scientists and growers have been able to keep up with the challenge. New root stocks, a biological agent, integrated pest management, elevated micro sprinklers, and many more. The research team includes the scientist, generally with an agency such as UF/IFAS or USDA or a large chemical company; a grower cooperator that provides practical insight, land and care for the trees, and great ideas; and then all the support personnel involved such as lab techs, field reps, extension agents, etc.
Since growers have relied so heavily on research, they need to be the foundation of the effort to increase funding for this vital activity. Greening is now the gigantic monster threatening to devour the Florida citrus grower and all those he supports. Once again the grower is looking to research to solve this problem and research is looking for funding to bring more resources into battle. Can addition funding solve the problem? Do research organizations need to reallocate staff and if so what happens to current programs? Is there really a problem with greening? After all growers were led to believe canker would destroy their trees and their fathers were told the same thing with blight and their grandfathers heard the same story with spreading decline! What do you think?
For several years a concerted effort has been under way to focus research on relevant problems. Growers have funded the “box tax committee” to supplement governmental funding. The Florida Citrus Commission has established an independent Florida Citrus Industry Research Coordinating Council (FCIRCC) to identify problems and research efforts under way in order to discover the “gaps”. Once the gaps are prioritized, then the council will work with growers, processors, packers, harvesters, organizations, research agencies, etc. to fill the voids.
What do you think? Is greening really a problem or just another issue to generate funding for research? Are you in favor of providing funding from your fruit sales to support research? Do you feel research agencies have accountability or are tenured faculty working on their own projects or just sitting on their rear ends doing nothing! What are the major production, processing, packing and harvesting challenges? What needs to be done to solve these issues? Jim Griffiths was an adamant believer in research and also committed to seeing efficiency on both ends – namely adequate funding and accountability. That certainly seems to be prudent!
John Jackson, Director FCIRCC
Research - FAO Crop Forecasting in Pakistan
Terms of Reference for Yield forecasting expert/CTA
Under the overall supervision of the FAO office in Islamabad, the technical guidance of FAO/SDRN, and in close liaison with the national experts at the central and provincial levels, MINFAL, SUPARCO, the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the statistics Division, the Economic Wing and other units as necessary, the Consultant will be instrumental in the establishment of an operational yield forecasting system. In particular, the consultant will be responsible for the following tasks:
1. Coordinate all actions with the partners of the project, including national experts and international consultant. Particular attention will be given to the interactions between the yields forecasts and the area estimation components under the PC-I on “Monitoring of Crops through Satellite Technology” operated by SUPARCO on behalf of MINFAL. The expert will ensure a technical briefing/mutual information sharing function between all participants in the project.
2. Take stock of the current situation in Pakistan as regards agricultural statistics, yield and area estimations using all sources of available information. Include all data required for agrometeorological yield forecasting.
3. In consultation with all partners, prepare a detailed workplan for the entire duration of the project. This includes the preparation of the terms of reference for the second international experts, i.e. consultant in Area Forecasting (3 m/m).
4. Finalize the training plan (based on ANNEX I) in collaboration with the University of Liège, to ensure sustainability of the crop forecasting system to be consolidated in Pakistan. Ensure that sufficient “trainers of trainers” will be included in the training to ensure sustainability of the crop forecasting system at all levels.
5. Set-up an operational and decentralised database of all data required for the development and the operation of a yield forecasting system in Pakistan, paying due attention to the decentralised nature of crop statistics in the country and to electronic data exchange among partners. Particular attention will be given to the integration of data from different administrative levels to ensure their compatibility.
6. Calibrate a central and decentralised system of crop yield estimation in the country, in consultation with all partners at the central and provincial levels. The heart of the forecasting system will be the FAO AgroMetShell software. To coordinate the entry in digital form of the data collected and the calculation and analysis of synthetics parameters (i.e. decadal rainfall, PET, WRSI, etc.). IN collaboration with SDRN and the University of Liège (the training institution) ensure that all functions required by the project will be incorporated in AMS, if they are currently not available.
7. To assure the correct functioning of appropriate software (FAO-AgroMetShell) for data entry, archiving and analysis of agro-meteorological data to be used for yield forecasting.
8. To process and analyze the historical datasets and integration with other agro-meteorological data and information (i.e. phenological, rainfall analysis, crop stages and condition, soil moisture, phytosanitary condition and satellite images) in order to run the yield forecasting model for each agro-ecological zone in Pakistan.
9. After the first year of operation of the project, assess optimal data needs and prepare plan to improve methodology and data collection in partnership with all stakeholders. Particular attention will be paid to the integration of the yield and area components of the PC-I. If necessary, define a second wave of training requirements. At this stage, determine requirements foreseen to expand the crop forecasting system to the main crops in the country beyond wheat and cotton, especially rice, sugarcane and maize.
10. Assist in the preparation of training material and publications of the Project.
11. Assist the FAO Office and the Steering Committee in all matters related to the operation of the Project. Write the regular reports foreseen by the present project document and, as required, take an active role in the preparation of other project documents that are related to crop forecasting.
12. Prepare the reports listed above under I. (Reporting, Review and monitoring).
Qualifications:
- Qualified graduate in related agricultural sciences with at least ten years direct experience in yield forecasting. Ability to write technical reports is required. Fluency in English is essential.
- Duration: 17 months (July 2006 to November 2007)
- Duty Station: Islamabad, with frequent travel within the country
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